3.7 KiB
3.7 KiB
Scam / Fake-Hype Signals
Use this reference when a user asks whether a coin is a rug, scam, fake narrative pump, or suspicious meme coin.
Goal
Separate three different bad cases:
- obvious scam-risk — high chance of rug, manipulation, or fabricated legitimacy
- fake-hype / low-quality pump — may trade, but the story is mostly noise and exit liquidity risk is high
- messy but tradable — ugly structure, but not enough evidence to call it a scam
Do not collapse all weak coins into "scam." Be precise.
Primary red flags
1. Liquidity illusion
Warning signs:
- the coin appears tradable, but exits are unclear
- volume looks large relative to real attention
- spreads are erratic or suspiciously wide
- price moves hard on small visible participation
Interpretation:
- if buyers can enter more easily than they can exit, treat this as a severe warning
2. Holder concentration risk
Warning signs:
- a few wallets dominate supply
- deployer/team wallets remain powerful
- clustered wallets look related
- unlock or dump overhang seems obvious
Interpretation:
- concentration does not automatically mean scam, but it makes the coin structurally fragile
- if concentration is extreme and active, classify closer to avoid / scam-risk
3. Legitimacy theater
Warning signs:
- loud claims of partnerships with no verifiable source
- fake exchange-listing rumors
- website looks polished but contains no falsifiable specifics
- team bios are vague, recycled, or unverifiable
- social posts overpromise and under-document
Interpretation:
- fake credibility signals are often more important than weak fundamentals
4. Social proof distortion
Warning signs:
- comments feel repetitive or botted
- follower count is high but engagement quality is low
- shill accounts post identical talking points
- the project feels ubiquitous inside its own bubble but invisible elsewhere
Interpretation:
- hype quality matters more than hype quantity
5. Chart manipulation smell
Warning signs:
- repeated long wicks without stable follow-through
- random explosive candles with no broader market pickup
- price repeatedly returns to the same area after dramatic spikes
- pattern looks designed to bait breakout traders
Interpretation:
- manufactured excitement often looks different from organic expansion
Secondary warning signs
These do not prove scam by themselves, but they weaken the case:
- narrative changes every few days
- too many sectors/themes stapled together
- tokenomics explanation is confusing on purpose
- everything depends on one influencer wave
- no credible venue improvement despite heavy promotion
Useful distinctions
Scam-risk
Use when one or more of these are true:
- severe exit/liquidity concerns
- strong public warnings from multiple independent places
- fabricated legitimacy claims look credible
- wallet concentration plus active dump risk is severe
Fake-hype / low-quality pump
Use when:
- the coin may still trade, but most of the fuel is shallow attention
- quality of discussion is poor
- market structure looks weak
- timing is bad and late buyers are likely exit liquidity
Messy but tradable
Use when:
- structure is ugly, but not enough to call scam
- there is still credible liquidity and real attention
- risk is high, but the market is not obviously fake
Output guidance
When scam risk is part of the analysis, include:
- Suspicion level: low / medium / high
- Main red flags: 2-5 bullets
- What would reduce suspicion: specific evidence, not vibes
- Bottom line: tradable speculation / watch-only / avoid
Hard override rule
Even if the narrative and attention look strong, classify as avoid / scam-risk when exit risk or fabricated legitimacy is severe enough.