feat: add decision calibration, prediction tracking, and reference routing

SKILL.md
- Add triggers/mode to frontmatter for better skill routing
- Add mandatory JSON decision skeleton before every trade
- Add multi-source confirmation rule and common-mistakes guardrails
- Add prediction logging to hourly review workflow
- Restructure References into an explicit routing table

CLAUDE.md
- Add Reference routing table for agent context
- Fix remaining Hermes-only wording in gate description

references/user-data-layout.md
- Add complete log schema: decisions, trades, predictions, errors
- Document predictions_YYYYMMDD.jsonl for calibration feedback loop

README.md
- Mention prediction tracking in "Why it works"
- Update runtime directory layout to include predictions.jsonl

references/shim-templates.md
- Show platform cron config usage examples

SKILL.md

@@ -1,6 +1,14 @@
 ---
 name: Coin Hunter
-description: Hybrid short-term crypto trading system — combining mainstream coin scalping with meme-coin opportunistic rotation, backed by hourly review and continuous strategy iteration.
+description: Hybrid short-term crypto trading system — combining mainstream coin scalping with meme-coin opportunistic rotation, backed by hourly review, prediction tracking, and continuous strategy iteration.
+triggers:
+  - "分析这个币"
+  - "coinhunter"
+  - "交易决策"
+  - "review"
+  - "recap"
+  - "执行交易"
+mode: agent-assisted
 ---
 
 # Coin Hunter
@@ -50,6 +58,46 @@ Before executing or recommending any action, answer:
 
 Read `references/short-term-trading-framework.md` before every active decision pass.
 
+## Decision calibration (mandatory JSON skeleton)
+
+Before finalizing any HOLD / SELL_ALL / REBALANCE / BUY decision, output this JSON block. It forces alignment between reasoning and action.
+
+```json
+{
+  "decision": "HOLD",
+  "confidence": 0.75,
+  "primary_reason": "BTC regime bearish contradicts long bias",
+  "risk_reward": 0.8,
+  "time_horizon_hours": 4,
+  "stop_loss": 0.0,
+  "take_profit": 0.0,
+  "max_loss_pct": 0.07
+}
+```
+
+Rules:
+- `confidence` must be 0.0–1.0. If < 0.55, default to HOLD unless there is an urgent risk-off reason.
+- `risk_reward` must be ≥ 1.0 to justify a new entry.
+- `stop_loss` and `take_profit` must be explicit numbers (not "TBD").
+- Only after outputting this JSON may you proceed to `coinhunter exec`.
+
+## Multi-source confirmation rule
+
+A signal strengthens only when confirmed by **2 or more independent data sources**:
+- Price action + volume expansion on Bybit/Binance
+- Narrative heat on Twitter/X + DEX flow on DexScreener
+- CEX listing rumor from exchange announcement + on-chain holder growth
+
+If a signal comes from a **single source only**, downgrade confidence by 0.15–0.25.
+
+## Common mistakes to avoid
+
+- Do NOT estimate PnL from memory; always read `positions.json` first.
+- Do NOT chase a coin that only appears on a single tiny DEX with no social footprint.
+- Do NOT output a trade recommendation without stating the exact stop-loss level.
+- Do NOT ignore contradictory BTC/ETH regime shifts when evaluating altcoin setups.
+- Do NOT override the position-sizing table based on "gut feeling."
+
 ## Workflow
 
 ### Discovery & Scanning
@@ -63,16 +111,21 @@ Read `references/short-term-trading-framework.md` before every active decision p
 1. Read balances and positions.
 2. Pull market data for holdings and candidates.
 3. Run the 6-question scientific checklist.
-4. Decide: **HOLD** / **SELL_ALL** / **REBALANCE** / **BUY**.
-5. Execute via the CLI (`coinhunter exec ...`).
-6. Log the full decision context via the CLI execution.
+4. Output the **decision calibration JSON skeleton**.
+5. Decide: **HOLD** / **SELL_ALL** / **REBALANCE** / **BUY**.
+6. Execute via the CLI (`coinhunter exec ...`).
+7. Write a `prediction` entry to `~/.coinhunter/logs/predictions_YYYYMMDD.jsonl` with expected price range and validation timestamp.
 
 ### Review (every hour)
 1. Run `coinhunter recap` to analyze all decisions from the past hour.
 2. Compare decision prices to current prices.
-3. Flag patterns: missed runs, bad entries, over-trading, hesitation.
-4. Output recommendations for parameter or blacklist adjustments.
-5. Save the review report to `~/.coinhunter/reviews/`.
+3. Read `~/.coinhunter/logs/predictions_YYYYMMDD.jsonl` and score prediction accuracy:
+   - If price landed inside the predicted range → +1 calibrated point
+   - If price moved opposite to the predicted direction → flag systematic bias
+   - If stop-loss was hit faster than predicted → widen risk buffer or reduce position size
+4. Flag patterns: missed runs, bad entries, over-trading, hesitation.
+5. Output recommendations for parameter or blacklist adjustments.
+6. Save the review report to `~/.coinhunter/reviews/`.
 
 ## Auto-trading architecture
 
@@ -358,10 +411,17 @@ Use `references/review-template.md` structure:
 - Strategy adjustments recommended
 - Action items for next hour
 
-## References
+## Reference routing
 
-Read `references/provider-playbook.md` for data source selection.
-Read `references/user-data-layout.md` for private state management.
-Read `references/short-term-trading-framework.md` for the hybrid trading framework.
-Read `references/review-template.md` for hourly report formatting.
-Read `references/scam-signals.md` when evaluating meme coins.
+Read these files at the exact moments below. Do not skip them.
+
+| When | Read this |
+|------|-----------|
+| Before every active trade decision (mainstream) | `references/short-term-trading-framework.md` |
+| Before every active trade decision (meme) | `references/short-term-trading-framework.md` + `references/scam-signals.md` |
+| Data source conflict or ambiguity | `references/provider-playbook.md` |
+| Hourly review | `references/review-template.md` |
+| Setting up runtime state or logging schema | `references/user-data-layout.md` |
+| Deploying auto-trading or Binance API | `references/auto-trading-guide.md` |
+| Evaluating output format | `references/output-templates.md` |
+| Running proactive discovery scans | `references/search-workflow.md` |