Initial commit: coin-hunter skill

references/scam-signals.md

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+# Scam / Fake-Hype Signals
+
+Use this reference when a user asks whether a coin is a rug, scam, fake narrative pump, or suspicious meme coin.
+
+## Goal
+
+Separate three different bad cases:
+- **obvious scam-risk** — high chance of rug, manipulation, or fabricated legitimacy
+- **fake-hype / low-quality pump** — may trade, but the story is mostly noise and exit liquidity risk is high
+- **messy but tradable** — ugly structure, but not enough evidence to call it a scam
+
+Do not collapse all weak coins into "scam." Be precise.
+
+## Primary red flags
+
+### 1. Liquidity illusion
+Warning signs:
+- the coin appears tradable, but exits are unclear
+- volume looks large relative to real attention
+- spreads are erratic or suspiciously wide
+- price moves hard on small visible participation
+
+Interpretation:
+- if buyers can enter more easily than they can exit, treat this as a severe warning
+
+### 2. Holder concentration risk
+Warning signs:
+- a few wallets dominate supply
+- deployer/team wallets remain powerful
+- clustered wallets look related
+- unlock or dump overhang seems obvious
+
+Interpretation:
+- concentration does not automatically mean scam, but it makes the coin structurally fragile
+- if concentration is extreme and active, classify closer to avoid / scam-risk
+
+### 3. Legitimacy theater
+Warning signs:
+- loud claims of partnerships with no verifiable source
+- fake exchange-listing rumors
+- website looks polished but contains no falsifiable specifics
+- team bios are vague, recycled, or unverifiable
+- social posts overpromise and under-document
+
+Interpretation:
+- fake credibility signals are often more important than weak fundamentals
+
+### 4. Social proof distortion
+Warning signs:
+- comments feel repetitive or botted
+- follower count is high but engagement quality is low
+- shill accounts post identical talking points
+- the project feels ubiquitous inside its own bubble but invisible elsewhere
+
+Interpretation:
+- hype quality matters more than hype quantity
+
+### 5. Chart manipulation smell
+Warning signs:
+- repeated long wicks without stable follow-through
+- random explosive candles with no broader market pickup
+- price repeatedly returns to the same area after dramatic spikes
+- pattern looks designed to bait breakout traders
+
+Interpretation:
+- manufactured excitement often looks different from organic expansion
+
+## Secondary warning signs
+
+These do not prove scam by themselves, but they weaken the case:
+- narrative changes every few days
+- too many sectors/themes stapled together
+- tokenomics explanation is confusing on purpose
+- everything depends on one influencer wave
+- no credible venue improvement despite heavy promotion
+
+## Useful distinctions
+
+### Scam-risk
+Use when one or more of these are true:
+- severe exit/liquidity concerns
+- strong public warnings from multiple independent places
+- fabricated legitimacy claims look credible
+- wallet concentration plus active dump risk is severe
+
+### Fake-hype / low-quality pump
+Use when:
+- the coin may still trade, but most of the fuel is shallow attention
+- quality of discussion is poor
+- market structure looks weak
+- timing is bad and late buyers are likely exit liquidity
+
+### Messy but tradable
+Use when:
+- structure is ugly, but not enough to call scam
+- there is still credible liquidity and real attention
+- risk is high, but the market is not obviously fake
+
+## Output guidance
+
+When scam risk is part of the analysis, include:
+- **Suspicion level:** low / medium / high
+- **Main red flags:** 2-5 bullets
+- **What would reduce suspicion:** specific evidence, not vibes
+- **Bottom line:** tradable speculation / watch-only / avoid
+
+## Hard override rule
+
+Even if the narrative and attention look strong, classify as **avoid / scam-risk** when exit risk or fabricated legitimacy is severe enough.