"""Market signal scoring primitives and domain-specific models.""" from __future__ import annotations from math import log10 from statistics import mean from typing import Any def _clamp(value: float, low: float, high: float) -> float: return max(low, min(value, high)) def _safe_pct(new: float, old: float) -> float: if old == 0: return 0.0 return (new - old) / old def _range_pct(values: list[float], denominator: float) -> float: if not values or denominator == 0: return 0.0 return (max(values) - min(values)) / denominator _DEFAULT_OPPORTUNITY_MODEL_WEIGHTS = { "trend": 0.1406, "compression": 0.1688, "breakout_proximity": 0.0875, "higher_lows": 0.15, "range_position": 0.45, "fresh_breakout": 0.2, "volume": 0.525, "momentum": 0.1562, "setup": 1.875, "trigger": 1.875, "liquidity": 0.3, "volatility_penalty": 0.8, "extension_penalty": 0.45, } def get_opportunity_model_weights(opportunity_config: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, float]: configured = opportunity_config.get("model_weights", {}) return { key: float(configured.get(key, default)) for key, default in _DEFAULT_OPPORTUNITY_MODEL_WEIGHTS.items() } def _weighted_quality(values: dict[str, float], weights: dict[str, float]) -> float: weighted_sum = 0.0 total_weight = 0.0 for key, value in values.items(): weight = max(float(weights.get(key, 0.0)), 0.0) if weight == 0: continue weighted_sum += weight * value total_weight += weight if total_weight == 0: return 0.0 return _clamp(weighted_sum / total_weight, -1.0, 1.0) def get_signal_weights(config: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, float]: signal_config = config.get("signal", {}) return { "trend": float(signal_config.get("trend", 1.0)), "momentum": float(signal_config.get("momentum", 1.0)), "breakout": float(signal_config.get("breakout", 0.8)), "volume": float(signal_config.get("volume", 0.7)), "volatility_penalty": float(signal_config.get("volatility_penalty", 0.5)), } def get_signal_interval(config: dict[str, Any]) -> str: signal_config = config.get("signal", {}) if signal_config.get("lookback_interval"): return str(signal_config["lookback_interval"]) return "1h" def score_market_signal( closes: list[float], volumes: list[float], ticker: dict[str, Any], weights: dict[str, float], ) -> tuple[float, dict[str, float]]: return score_portfolio_signal(closes, volumes, ticker, weights) def score_portfolio_signal( closes: list[float], volumes: list[float], ticker: dict[str, Any], weights: dict[str, float], ) -> tuple[float, dict[str, float]]: if len(closes) < 2 or not volumes: return 0.0, { "trend": 0.0, "momentum": 0.0, "breakout": 0.0, "volume_confirmation": 1.0, "volatility": 0.0, } current = closes[-1] sma_short = mean(closes[-5:]) if len(closes) >= 5 else current sma_long = mean(closes[-20:]) if len(closes) >= 20 else mean(closes) trend = 1.0 if current >= sma_short >= sma_long else -1.0 if current < sma_short < sma_long else 0.0 momentum = ( _safe_pct(closes[-1], closes[-2]) * 0.5 + (_safe_pct(closes[-1], closes[-5]) * 0.3 if len(closes) >= 5 else 0.0) + float(ticker.get("price_change_pct", 0.0)) / 100.0 * 0.2 ) recent_high = max(closes[-20:]) if len(closes) >= 20 else max(closes) breakout = 1.0 - max((recent_high - current) / recent_high, 0.0) avg_volume = mean(volumes[:-1]) if len(volumes) > 1 else volumes[-1] volume_confirmation = volumes[-1] / avg_volume if avg_volume else 1.0 volume_score = min(max(volume_confirmation - 1.0, -1.0), 2.0) volatility = (max(closes[-10:]) - min(closes[-10:])) / current if len(closes) >= 10 and current else 0.0 score = ( weights.get("trend", 1.0) * trend + weights.get("momentum", 1.0) * momentum + weights.get("breakout", 0.8) * breakout + weights.get("volume", 0.7) * volume_score - weights.get("volatility_penalty", 0.5) * volatility ) metrics = { "trend": round(trend, 4), "momentum": round(momentum, 4), "breakout": round(breakout, 4), "volume_confirmation": round(volume_confirmation, 4), "volatility": round(volatility, 4), } return score, metrics def score_opportunity_signal( closes: list[float], volumes: list[float], ticker: dict[str, Any], opportunity_config: dict[str, Any], ) -> tuple[float, dict[str, float]]: model_weights = get_opportunity_model_weights(opportunity_config) if len(closes) < 6 or len(volumes) < 2: return 0.0, { "setup_score": 0.0, "trigger_score": 0.0, "liquidity_score": 0.0, "edge_score": 0.0, "setup_quality": 0.0, "trigger_quality": 0.0, "liquidity_quality": 0.0, "risk_quality": 0.0, "extension_penalty": 0.0, "breakout_pct": 0.0, "recent_runup": 0.0, "volume_confirmation": 1.0, "volatility": 0.0, } current = closes[-1] sma_short = mean(closes[-5:]) sma_long = mean(closes[-20:]) if len(closes) >= 20 else mean(closes) if current >= sma_short >= sma_long: trend_quality = 1.0 elif current < sma_short < sma_long: trend_quality = -1.0 else: trend_quality = 0.0 prior_closes = closes[:-1] prev_high = max(prior_closes[-20:]) if prior_closes else current recent_low = min(closes[-20:]) range_width = prev_high - recent_low range_position = _clamp((current - recent_low) / range_width, 0.0, 1.2) if range_width else 0.0 range_position_quality = 2.0 * _clamp(1.0 - abs(range_position - 0.62) / 0.62, 0.0, 1.0) - 1.0 breakout_pct = _safe_pct(current, prev_high) recent_range = _range_pct(closes[-6:], current) prior_window = closes[-20:-6] if len(closes) >= 20 else closes[:-6] prior_range = _range_pct(prior_window, current) if prior_window else recent_range compression = _clamp(1.0 - (recent_range / prior_range), -1.0, 1.0) if prior_range else 0.0 recent_low_window = min(closes[-5:]) prior_low_window = min(closes[-10:-5]) if len(closes) >= 10 else min(closes[:-5]) higher_lows = 1.0 if recent_low_window > prior_low_window else -1.0 breakout_proximity = _clamp(1.0 - abs(breakout_pct) / 0.03, 0.0, 1.0) breakout_proximity_quality = 2.0 * breakout_proximity - 1.0 setup_quality = _weighted_quality( { "trend": trend_quality, "compression": compression, "breakout_proximity": breakout_proximity_quality, "higher_lows": higher_lows, "range_position": range_position_quality, }, model_weights, ) setup_score = _clamp((setup_quality + 1.0) / 2.0, 0.0, 1.0) avg_volume = mean(volumes[:-1]) volume_confirmation = volumes[-1] / avg_volume if avg_volume else 1.0 volume_score = _clamp((volume_confirmation - 1.0) / 1.5, -1.0, 1.0) momentum_3 = _safe_pct(closes[-1], closes[-4]) if momentum_3 <= 0: controlled_momentum = _clamp(momentum_3 / 0.05, -1.0, 0.0) elif momentum_3 <= 0.05: controlled_momentum = momentum_3 / 0.05 elif momentum_3 <= 0.12: controlled_momentum = 1.0 - ((momentum_3 - 0.05) / 0.07) * 0.5 else: controlled_momentum = -0.2 fresh_breakout = _clamp(1.0 - abs(breakout_pct) / 0.025, 0.0, 1.0) fresh_breakout_quality = 2.0 * fresh_breakout - 1.0 trigger_quality = _weighted_quality( { "fresh_breakout": fresh_breakout_quality, "volume": volume_score, "momentum": controlled_momentum, }, model_weights, ) trigger_score = _clamp((trigger_quality + 1.0) / 2.0, 0.0, 1.0) extension_from_short = _safe_pct(current, sma_short) recent_runup = _safe_pct(current, closes[-6]) extension_penalty = ( _clamp((extension_from_short - 0.025) / 0.075, 0.0, 1.0) + _clamp((recent_runup - 0.08) / 0.12, 0.0, 1.0) + _clamp((float(ticker.get("price_change_pct", 0.0)) / 100.0 - 0.12) / 0.18, 0.0, 1.0) ) volatility = _range_pct(closes[-10:], current) min_quote_volume = float(opportunity_config.get("min_quote_volume", 0.0)) quote_volume = float(ticker.get("quote_volume") or ticker.get("quoteVolume") or 0.0) if min_quote_volume > 0 and quote_volume > 0: liquidity_score = _clamp(log10(max(quote_volume / min_quote_volume, 1.0)) / 2.0, 0.0, 1.0) else: liquidity_score = 1.0 liquidity_quality = 2.0 * liquidity_score - 1.0 volatility_quality = 1.0 - 2.0 * _clamp(volatility / 0.12, 0.0, 1.0) extension_quality = 1.0 - 2.0 * _clamp(extension_penalty / 2.0, 0.0, 1.0) risk_quality = _weighted_quality( { "volatility_penalty": volatility_quality, "extension_penalty": extension_quality, }, model_weights, ) edge_score = _weighted_quality( { "setup": setup_quality, "trigger": trigger_quality, "liquidity": liquidity_quality, "trend": trend_quality, "range_position": range_position_quality, "volatility_penalty": volatility_quality, "extension_penalty": extension_quality, }, model_weights, ) score = 1.0 + edge_score metrics = { "setup_score": round(setup_score, 4), "trigger_score": round(trigger_score, 4), "liquidity_score": round(liquidity_score, 4), "edge_score": round(edge_score, 4), "setup_quality": round(setup_quality, 4), "trigger_quality": round(trigger_quality, 4), "liquidity_quality": round(liquidity_quality, 4), "risk_quality": round(risk_quality, 4), "trend_quality": round(trend_quality, 4), "range_position_quality": round(range_position_quality, 4), "breakout_proximity_quality": round(breakout_proximity_quality, 4), "volume_quality": round(volume_score, 4), "momentum_quality": round(controlled_momentum, 4), "extension_quality": round(extension_quality, 4), "volatility_quality": round(volatility_quality, 4), "extension_penalty": round(extension_penalty, 4), "compression": round(compression, 4), "range_position": round(range_position, 4), "breakout_pct": round(breakout_pct, 4), "recent_runup": round(recent_runup, 4), "volume_confirmation": round(volume_confirmation, 4), "volatility": round(volatility, 4), "sma_short_distance": round(extension_from_short, 4), "sma_long_distance": round(_safe_pct(current, sma_long), 4), } return score, metrics